Thoughts on SpaceX
Created: 2026-02-17 11:24:44 | Last Modified: 2026-02-17 11:27:52
This was a blue sky rabbit hole I went down, which is the reason for the frantic style.
I.
In 2025 there were approximately 325 orbital launches worldwide. Elon Musk's SpaceX was responsible for 165 of those, which is just above 50%. So SpaceX launched more rockets into space than all of earth's other companies and nations combined. Considering just U.S. launches, SpaceX was responsible for 85% of launches. Remember when NASA was a thing? As of right now (February 2026), Ukrainian forces have just made staggering gains after Starlink was finally disabled for the russian army. This suggests to me that there is a monopoly forming on space launch technology, and one which currently is in the hands of a private company, majority-owned by a single individual.
Does that seem right to you?
II.
The SpaceX IPO is planned with a $1.5T valuation. With reported earnings of ~$8B, this would put the company at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 150.
For context, nvidia trades at roughly 40 times earnings. Feel the hype?
III.
It gets worse. That $8B isn't profit—it's EBITDA. Once you factor in the massive capital expenditures for starlink and the xAI money furnace, actual net earnings are roughly what Apple makes selling AirPods.
The real P/E ratio is likely north of 400. That's Tesla territory.
IV.
Why the rush to IPO at such a fake number? Follow the money.
The Tesla board recently approved a $1T payout to Musk—contingent on Tesla hitting an $8.5T market cap. That’s impossible for a car company. But it’s possible for a "Conglomerate."
V.
SpaceX has acquired xAI (~125B valuation). Tesla has a $1.2T market cap solely based on hype.
See the big picture? A merger is the only way to "math" his way to that $8.5T target and secure the trillion-dollar payday.
VI.
But wait. $8.5T is a nominal target. It doesn't account for inflation.
This is fine for you and me, because we can't just print $ to inflate ourselves towards the target.
But what if our friend Donnie has a $ printer? One that he wanted to use anyway? Inflation is a strategy.
VII.
To be listed in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100, a company is required to have 10% float (publicly available shares).
Elmo hates that. He wants control.
Word is he’s lobbying the exchanges to lower the float requirements. If he succeeds, he can pump the price with minimal trading volume.
VIII.
If a $8.5T SpaceX-Tesla-xAI hybrid enters the S&P 500, it would represent ~15% of the entire index.
Since the S&P is market-cap weighted, everybody and their grandmother would be forced to buy-in. That means if SpaceX goes bust, it would eliminate 50% of the S&P due to margin calls.
IX.
401ks and IRAs (individual retirement accounts) make up about half the U.S. stock market.
Remember Enron? Or 2008?
If Elon manages to become a trillionaire by inflating and rugpulling SpaceX, this could be the biggest transfer of wealth from labor to capital in the history of mankind.
X.
Btw, I'm not saying SpaceX is a bad company. 90% of U.S. launches are currently through SpaceX. Gwynn Shotwell is brilliant. Starlink is amazing.
The question is how much rat poison can you roll into one taco before investors get a tummy ache, and will it shut down the whole food court.